Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on the Island of Roatán from 2017 to 2025

Abstract

Abstract This study analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) changes on the island of Roatán, Honduras, between 2017 and 2025 using remote sensing and GIS-based techniques to categorize land use and quantify the gains, losses, and transitions related to shifting land use patterns associated with tourism and development pressures. Multi-temporal Sentinel-2A imagery was processed through supervised classification using the Random Forest algorithm, guided by training data corresponding to key macro land cover categories including vegetation, artificial surfaces, wetlands, open spaces, and water bodies. To complement the classification process, two spectral indices: NDVI and NDBI were applied as visual interpretation tools to support the identification of vegetation health, built-up density, and land transformation trends. This study employed a simplified Corine Land Cover (CLC)-inspired methodology, adapted to the tropical island context. Quantitative change analysis was conducted using the Pontius matrix to evaluate spatial gains, losses, and persistence across land cover classes. Results indicate a marked expansion of industrial, commercial and transport zones and a notable reduction in open areas with little or no vegetation, reflecting a trend toward intensified industrialization on Roatán. Forests showed both losses and localized gains, reflecting land use fluctuations. This research contributes to understanding the spatial development dynamics and environmental change in Roatán, with implications for land management, conservation planning, and future coastal resilience strategies.