Application of HydroBID and InVEST hydrologic models in tributaries of Lake Yojoa watershed

Abstract

The relationship established by different natural and social variables make up the ecology of lakes and become a component for the communities that surround it. Hydrologic models are used to represent the relationship between abiotic elements in watersheds and provide a complete view on the dynamics that take place in a given territory. The Hydro-BID model is a process-based hydrologic model that was calibrated for the Yure and Varsovia River basins to perform the watershed-scale simulations. This study adresses the effect of climate change as a variable with potential impactsin the montly and annual flow into Lake Yojoa, Honduras. The InVEST® Nutrient Delivery ratio (NDR) was used to estimate nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads spactially distributed in the basin. As a result, this study presents the HydroBID model as an effective tool for estimating monthly streamflow in the Yure and Varsovia river basins with a Nash-Sutcliffe effciency index (NSE) of 0.85. Moreover, climate change scenarios modeled, indicate an increase in outflow under the SSP2-4.5 scenario by 2040, while the SSP3-7.0 scenario predicts a decrease in monthly outflow, primarily influenced by changes in precipitation. Finally, the InVEST® NDR model is suitable for estimating nutrient exports from non-point sources in the Yure and Varsovia basins and can be calibrated for validation of the nutrient loads input into Lake Yojoa.